A test (n=1) of weight loss during running

There are reasons why different runners might best adopt 'slightly' different pacing strategies (profiles), even in flat corner-free road marathons, to get their optimal times - if it is critical to maintain a constant metabolic rate in skeletal muscle. One of the reasons has to do with physics, the other physiology. I thought I would try and calculate what that optimal pacing profile (for that 'mythical' flat wind-free cool road marathon) might look like for me. Just how much of a change in pace should I be aiming for if I were to make the very best use of my skeletal muscle carbohydrate stores? [The real world importance of this may be limited since it is possible that I am not limited by my carbohydrate reserves at the pace I can sustain and other runners may fail to make the best of their reserves because they start too quickly in the first place.]

The problem with using race predictors for choosing marathon race pace.

Is there a problem with using race predictors for marathon pace setting?

Often marathon runners use race predictors to help set their marathon pace - but, there is a real problem with that approach. I thought it might be interesting to give a few real world examples from people at opposite ends of the performance spectrum to illustrate the problem (and one in the middle). This is not a full scientific analysis - and you could accuse me of cherry picking my data. But, this is real data from runners who I know were making serious attempts to produce their best performance. These are runners I respect and have given their all in pursuit of a good marathon time. Of course there are plenty of examples of where race pace predictors work reasonably well - and I will try and do a statistical analysis of just how well they work for different types of runners at a later date. But, for now I want to show that care needs to be taken when extrapolating from shorter distance race performance to longer distances. What limits performance at 10km is not necessarily what limits performance in a marathon. This is not just a minor problem.